The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said Sub-Saharan Africa could increase its economic output by about 4% over the next decade through artificial intelligence, but only if governments first address chronic shortages of electricity, internet connectivity and digital skills. Without these essential reforms, the region’s AI dividend could be almost negligible.
The IMF estimates that AI could add just 0.2% to the region’s gross domestic product over the next 10 years under current conditions. However, stronger investment in digital infrastructure, reliable power supply and workforce skills could lift that figure to around 4%, equivalent to nearly half a percentage point of additional annual growth.
The report identifies electricity as the biggest obstacle to AI adoption across the continent. Around half of Sub-Saharan Africa’s population still lacks reliable access to power, limiting the ability of businesses, schools and public institutions to deploy AI-powered tools. The IMF said targeted investments in national grids and mini-grids around schools, hospitals and other public facilities could create digital hubs capable of supporting wider AI adoption.
Internet access remains another major constraint. Only 38% of Africans used the internet in 2024, compared with a global average of 68%. The Fund said expanding fibre-optic networks, improving broadband affordability and promoting open-access infrastructure would be critical to ensuring businesses and households can benefit from AI technologies.
Unlike advanced economies, where debates often focus on job displacement and AI regulation, the IMF argues that Africa’s immediate challenge is ensuring the technology can be deployed at scale. The report says AI’s greatest potential lies in raising productivity in agriculture, healthcare, education, public administration and small businesses rather than replacing workers.
Some investment is already flowing into the continent’s AI ecosystem. Microsoft and G42 are developing a $1 billion geothermal-powered data centre campus in Kenya, while Cassava Technologies and Nvidia are investing $700 million in graphics processing units across South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Egypt and Morocco. However, Africa has only about 160 data centres, nearly half of which are concentrated in South Africa, Nigeria and Kenya, raising concerns that AI investment could deepen regional disparities.
The IMF also called for greater investment in digital education, regulatory frameworks and technical skills to help businesses adopt AI more effectively. It said stronger policies would be essential to ensure African countries capture the productivity gains offered by the technology while avoiding a widening gap with more advanced economies.
The findings come as governments and technology companies accelerate investment in AI infrastructure worldwide. For Sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF argues that the priority is not building ever more sophisticated AI models but creating the foundations that allow the technology to be used effectively. Reliable electricity, affordable internet access and stronger digital capabilities, it said, will ultimately determine whether the region benefits from the global AI boom or falls further behind.
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