Executives and analysts say commercially viable quantum machines could arrive before the decade’s end, promising faster calculations, lower energy use and new security risks
For decades, quantum computing has been largely confined to research laboratories and academic journals, its promise often described as distant and speculative. Now, a growing number of executives and analysts say the technology may be approaching a commercial turning point, one that could reshape the design and economics of the world’s data centers.
Quantum computers harness the counterintuitive principles of quantum mechanics to process information in ways that classical machines cannot. Instead of relying on bits that are either on or off, quantum systems use quantum bits, or qubits, which can exist in multiple states at once. In theory, that allows them to tackle certain problems at speeds unattainable by even the most powerful supercomputers.
“By the end of the decade, we are confident that we will have machines in data centers that have commercial value,” said Zulfi Alam, corporate vice president of quantum at Microsoft.
“I would not be able to say this with this much clarity last year, but this year, I can state to claim that by 2029 you will have machines that will have commercial [value], meaning that they will be doing calculations that classical machines cannot do,” he added.
Microsoft is among a handful of technology giants racing to bring quantum systems closer to market. The company last year unveiled Majorana 1, a new quantum computing chip. Its rivals include Google and Amazon, which, like Microsoft, operate vast cloud networks and hyperscale data centers.
Industry road maps increasingly point to the period between 2028 and 2032 for early commercial deployments. Madeleine Jenkins, an analyst at UBS, said her firm expects quantum advantages to become visible in the early 2030s, even as companies signal nearer-term milestones. “A lot of companies are telling me that 2027 is going to be a big year for quantum in terms of roadmap, in terms of what’s achieved,” she said.
A 103-page report published in January by UBS analysts led by Jenkins suggested that the industry is nearing the completion of a quantum computer that could cost tens of millions of dollars to build but solve in 200 seconds a problem that would take a conventional supercomputer 10,000 years.
If such systems become practical, they could alter the energy profile of data centers, which are expanding rapidly to support artificial intelligence. Jenkins said quantum computing would require a “fraction of what a data center would use” for certain tasks.
“The big thing is time; if you’re taking the same problem that would take thousands and thousands of… hours, and you’re replacing that with a quantum computer that takes seconds or minutes, then obviously you just need a lot less energy,” she said.
Mr. Alam echoed that point, arguing that Microsoft’s chip demonstrates extraordinary computational potential with comparatively modest power demands. Majorana 1, he said, is “showcasing more power than the entire computation of the entire planet [in] the palm of your hands and it’s not running super-hot. It’s running cold.”
Still, experts caution that quantum computers are unlikely to replace the classical infrastructure that dominates today’s data centers. Instead, they are expected to complement it.
“A quantum machine is not a standalone entity. It’s a hybrid tool. It’s a quantum accelerator that needs a high-performance computer very close to it,” Mr. Alam said.
Ellie Brown, a quantum computing and cloud economics analyst at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said the efficiency of certain workloads may improve, but substitution is not imminent. “Ideally, the entire efficiency of a problem-solving workload will go down, but it’s not going to be a complete substitution,” she said.
Patrick Moorhead, chief executive of Moor Insights & Strategy, said that if quantum systems scale successfully, they will likely occupy specialized sections within data centers, potentially in dedicated “quantum pods” with distinct power and thermal requirements. He added that quantum will not displace the dominant energy driver in the near term, which remains the rapid expansion of A.I. infrastructure, but it could introduce new layers of operational complexity.
Governments are also investing heavily. According to the European Centre for International Political Economy, China has committed nearly $18 billion in public funding to quantum technologies, with the European Union close behind.
Yet significant obstacles remain. Only a small number of specialized quantum computers are currently deployed in data centers. Vendors are still working toward common industry standards to enable broader adoption, and the talent pool remains thin.
“There is still a significant amount of bespoke work that needs to be done in order to integrate quantum systems into data centers,” Ms. Brown said, adding that “we’re lacking some quantum talent to make use of that and get that installed effectively.”
Security is another looming concern. UBS warned that sufficiently powerful quantum machines could eventually break existing encryption methods, rendering current security systems obsolete. Companies may need to begin investing in quantum-safe encryption within the next few years to mitigate that risk.
Even with rising investment and a flurry of mergers and acquisitions, including several announcements from IonQ, executives say the road ahead will be arduous.
“It’s going to take a lot of ‘blood, sweat and tears,’” Mr. Alam said, pointing to the technical and performance challenges that must align before quantum systems can deliver on their promise.
For now, quantum computing remains an emerging layer atop an already expanding digital infrastructure. But as timelines shorten and prototypes mature, the industry is beginning to prepare for a future in which the most complex calculations no longer take millennia, but moments.
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